Swedish security report on China and India – Great Powers on a Collision Course
The 2012 edition of the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s (FOI) annual publication, Strategic Outlook, was recently released. Included in the report is a chapter on Sino-Indian relations co-authored by FOI researchers Jerker Hellström and Kaan Korkmaz. Go for the complete Strategic Outlook 2012 (pdf). The chapter on Sino-Indian relations, ”China and India – Great Powers on a Collision Course”, is on pp 76-84.
Jerker Hellström and Kaan Korkmaz.
The authors conclude that there are few reasons to believe that Sino–Indian relations will develop in a positive direction in the short term. Looking at this from a broader perspective, the trends seem to indicate a downward spiral. There is a risk that increased tension between China and India may lead to conflict. Both within the existing areas of friction and in new emerging domains where their interests collide. As the economic, political and military power of China and India grows, the two countries also improve their capabilities to assert their increasingly incompatible national interests. The need to project power has, in turn, produced new potential areas of conflict, further complicating their relations.
With an unresolved border dispute, divergent national interests and mutual mistrust, China and India’s relations are likely to be defined by increased tension and rivalry, according to the report.
Jerker Hellström is an East Asia analyst on the FOI Asia Security Studies Programme. He mainly studies issues regarding China and the Korean peninsula. His previous research at FOI has involved topics including China’s engagement in UN peacekeeping efforts, the Chinese presence in Africa and the EU arms embargo on China.
Kaan Korkmaz has previously worked as a consultant at FOI and is currently on an internship within FOI’s Asia Security Studies Programme. His main research is concerned with East Asian security.